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Building Sand Transition Forecast (draft)

Transition Timeline to Green Building

China may be the biggest consumer of sand right now, but the issue is a global one. A UN report published earlier this year showed that sand extraction is far outstripping the rates at which it is replenished. According to a team of scientists who recently wrote about the topic in Science Magazine ($) and The Conversation“Sand and gravel are now the most-extracted materials in the world” – measured by weight, they surpass fossil fuels and biomass. By every measure, our current level of sand use, particularly for concrete production, is totally unsustainable.

With the High Yield Analysis Matrix, a forecasting model, performance in one key area (sub industry and/or supply chain feeder component) can substitute for the entire industry when forecasting disruptive change and most profitable and secure investments.

How Sand transitions from Legacy to High Yield predicts the entire city centered building industry. When Sand is green, sustainable (likely from substitutes), the majority of city central building will also be green and sustainable. When will this occur? How to hasten?

Let’s look at several articles discussing sand as a necessary building material in short supply with heavy negative environmental impacts.

Important Transition Questions are

  • When will sand transition from Legacy to High Yield?
  • How do High Yield Communities Pay for Transition?
  • When will sand no longer be a viable large scale industry?
  • No longer desired as an investment nor building material?

The Axios and Forbes articles can be used to draft a Transition Timeline for sand and building industry in general. These articles are suitable for this method for several reasons:

  • Mainstream fact wise.
  • Present a widespread accepted POV.
  • Not about culture.

https://www.axios.com/sand-demand-construction-china-us-india-82b96963-6609-4e7f-8478-e22581f4a344.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriewinkless/2019/08/22/were-running-out-of-sand-and-cities-are-to-blame/#7e7375641240

The articles discuss problems formed from using sand in urban construction. The problems are international. Describe the current status and lack of any way forward to sustainable remedies. 2019, very few viable Green High Yield products or services.

So what’s causing this growth in demand? The answer is rapid urbanization, driven largely by China’s recent construction boom. In his book, Making the Modern World, historian Vaclav Smil shared a truly mind-blowing fact (which Bill Gates went on to feature on his blog). Between 2011 and 2013, China used more concrete than the US did in the entire 20th century. I think that point is worth reiterating, because it astonished me when I first read it. In just three years, China consumed roughly one-and-a-half times as much concrete (6.6 gigatons) as the US used in 100 years (4.5 gigatons). And to make that much concrete, you need a lot of sand. Hence the current market.

To get sand waste hazard industry to transition into an all ways sustainable one, it will have to develop green substitutes and government policy and procedures have to move forward to become biased towards sustainable substitutes.

This layouts the transition graph. The Legacy industry dominates, its replacement products and services are small potatoes, they’re in Stage 1.

Insert graph

Other story. From Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriewinkless/2019/08/22/were-running-out-of-sand-and-cities-are-to-blame/#7e7375641240

High Yield/Legacy Fork

Diagram current Legacy sand industry with Forbes and Axios. Human suffering. Away from clean air/clean water. Lack of paying taxes (solution on how to pay, change tax base to builders, suppliers, other users). Real profit based on demand and market share? Optimization seen as good investment reason? Public investment?

Flying Cars: Away from Gas

Flying cars are a great technology to forecast with the High Yield Timeline. They’re exciting, get media attention, they’re in first stage. So we can forecast their emergence as a dominant vehicle globally and locally.

Flying cars are in First Stage of the Transition. There are not enough to have basic business to business support, the scale is too small. However, that will change in the next few years.

Once the scale is large enough, will see flying cars in Hub Cities. Percentage of ownership is one way to assess the stage.

The price needs to drop and their sustainability and safety need to be near perfect. That when governments will openly encourage. Third stage.

Green product transportation and green public and personal transportation are moving into 2nd and 3rd stages. (Norway and Scotland, funds — move to Transition Timeline).

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/09/ciencia/1554802112_094100.html

Rex Tillerson several years ago

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/11/magazine/climate-change-exxon-renewable-energy.html


So when do oil stocks collapse? What year using this forecast tool?

The Spectator Index – Twitter

March 13, 2019

GDP is not a practical metric for measuring wellness or guiding transitions to better products and services and governments because it doesn’t differentiate between harmful (polluting, causing early death) activities and those creating longer lives and cleaner environments.

There are lots of discussions about replacing GDP and new indexes.

Using GDP to compare countries or with smaller administrative divisions like states or provinces, we see Texas on the same level as Canada, Pennsylvania compares to Saudi Arabia.

Looking at wellness (full health) as the key factor, Pennsylvania is and is not similar to Saudi Arabia. Here are a few points:

  • Life expectancy is five years higher in Pennsylvania.

New Jersey and Taiwan. How do they compare using the High Yield Medallion? Just looking at the first two rays, Wellness and Pollution (tax rates/collected can also be compared)

Interviews in Mexico January 2019

I did one or more interviews each day about economic wellness for two weeks in 3 different states: Michoacan, Jalisco, and Colima.


Photo by Cesar Vladimir Hernandez Sandoval

Interviews ranged from 30-60 minutes and included topics: income source, employment quality, wage growth, cost of living, changes over time, comparison if applicable, to the United States.

Most people interviewed were employees, a few were business owners. I did not interview any healthcare workers or doctors. The interviews were done in Spanish.

Big take away was affordable healthcare and overall security. Striking contrast to comparable interviews in Colorado, California, New York, and Vermont indicate struggle and insecurity.

Image result for gobernador hotel colima
Hotel Colima, Colima

Maria, housekeeper, Colima

Maria works for a 5 star hotel and also a motel. The work is more rapid at the motel, it has more turnover. She lives in the same neighborhood as the 5 star (see above) with her youngest daughter. Maria enjoys swimming, there’s a lush park with a rive and also a public pool.

Maria has 2 grown daughters, both born in the USA and have dual citizenship. One is a doctor, the other an attorney. Most of Maria’s family lives in Arizona, not Mexico. She saves enough from her hotel wages and tips to visit her Arizona family every year and go shopping, mostly for clothes. One of her brothers has been very successful financially, he owns a green taxi company in the San Francisco Bay Area and other businesses. She says she doesn’t envy him nor does the rest of the family because he’s under so much stress all the time. Maria and her daughter have full healthcare.

Take away — lifestyle is important, so is universal healthcare. Middle class in Mexico is rising where USA’s middle class is falling. Few hotel housekeepers in the USA can afford healthcare or annual shopping vacations or pool passes.

Image result for guadalajara taxi
Guadalajara taxis

Alberto, taxi driver, Jalisco

Alberto is married, has 1 child, his wife works in an office. They own their own home and it’s paid for. They purchased a small lot and built it.

Alberto was the most conscious about dangers of driving from the cartels. He chooses routes when outside of Guadalajara with roadblocks and other dangers in mind. He works long hours and makes himself available 24 hours. The January 2019 gas shortage was causing extra work for him, having to spend hours waiting in line at gas stations.

Alberto and his family have healthcare. It’s paid by a small deduction from his wages. His description of having to make appointments several weeks out seemed similar to what a senior on Medicare experiences in the USA.

Image result for santa clara michoacan puruandiro
30 minutes outside of Puruandiro, Michoacan

Juan has a truck repair business. He’s a mechanic and has a few employees. He was raised in an adobe house with a thatched roof, no plumbing. Juan owns a large home with 2 bathrooms, a garden, large living room, large kitchen. He built the house himself with the help of relatives and friends. His business is in a separate building. His wife also works, does administration for an elementary school. Juan describes his house as being “solid” – better than the paper houses in the United States.

Juan’s parents have prospered, they now have a home with electricity, one bath, three bedrooms. Hot water from solar. 3 of his sisters live in the USA. His elderly aunt had heart surgery, it was affordable. Nobody is going bankrupt from medical bills.